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Grand Theft Auto 6 Sales Projection May Be Unrealistic, Analyst Says

Earlier this week, video game venture capitalist firm Konvoy shared its predictions about Grand Theft Auto 6. Perhaps the most eye-catching part of that projection was the notion that GTA 6 will clear will reach $7.6 billion in revenue in only 60 days. Now, a video game analyst has suggested that those sky-high numbers may not be a realistic prediction of the game's performance.

Daniel Ahmad--the director of research and insights at Niko Partners--shared his assessment of Konvoy's predictions and noted that, "it's an aggressive forecast for the first 60 days." Ahmad added that Konvoy's numbers suggest that just under 65% of users who have either Xbox Series X|S or PlayStation 5 would need to purchase the game in that timeframe.

Ahmad also pointed out that Grand Theft Auto 5 sold 32.5 million copies in its first three months in 2013 when Xbox 360 and PS3 had an install base of around 166 million users. That's just under 20% of players who had either console.

Konvoy's projection may be out of reach, but there could be something to the company's prediction that GTA 6 will introduce a new UGC platform that allows mod creators to build their own areas of the game. A report earlier this year indicated that Rockstar Games was talking with Fortnite and Roblox creators about making custom experiences in GTA 6. That could potentially allow creators to earn money by selling their creations to other players, with Rockstar sharing a sizable portion of any income.

Grand Theft Auto 6 will hit PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S on May 26, 2026.